Probability of Sighting by Month: Selected Species
January 15, 2012 ~ Winter updated through 2011, Spring & Summer on the way...
Kate Sutherland has taken on the tedious task to calculate the odds of seeing some pelagic seabirds of interest on a monthly basis. She has also compiled the peak counts for those species during those months. So far the work is done for January, February, March, May, June, July, and August. But this is a work in progress, and we will update it periodically as we run more trips. We also plan to add September data, as well as some other useful information such as the actual days of the month when we have seen rare and uncommon species and the actual days of the month when we have run trips in the past. Sometimes a monthly breakdown is not ideal, but this data will give you a ROUGH idea of what you might hope for, and it is much quicker than poring over dozens of old trip lists, which is still fun and very instructive if you have the time. Keep in mind that odds might differ drastically from year to year for a given species. One year we might see Trindade Petrel on over 50% of the trips in late May and another year that figure might be les than 20%. Anyhow, this compilation is the product of hundreds of trips over the years. I hope you enjoy looking at it.
Brian Patteson
|
January |
||
|
12 trips total thru 20 |
||
|
species |
#
of trips seen & % |
high
count |
|
Northern
Fulmar |
5 - 42% |
74
on 1/24/98 |
|
Sooty
Shearwater |
2 - 17% |
1
on 1/30/99 |
|
Manx
Shearwater |
6 - 50% |
12
on 1/24/98 & 1/30/99 |
|
Red
Phalarope |
6
- 50% |
3,765+
on 1/26/02 |
| Little Gull |
4 - 33.3% |
7 on 1/28/96 |
|
Black-legged
Kittiwake |
8 - 66.6% |
111
on 1/24/98 |
|
Great
Skua |
5 - 42% |
2
to 3 on 1/26/02 |
|
Parasitic
Jaeger |
3 - 25% |
1
on 1/30/99,
|
|
Dovekie |
6 - 50% |
643 on 1/28/ |
| Common Murre |
1 - 8% |
1 on 1/29/ |
|
Razorbill |
10 - 83.3% |
308
on 1/28/96 |
|
Atlantic
Puffin |
4 - 33.3% |
17 on 1/28/11 |
|
February |
||
|
36
trips total thru 20 |
||
|
species |
#
of trips seen & % |
high
count |
|
Northern
Fulmar |
20
- 55.5% |
200+
on 2/9/97 |
|
Black-capped
Petrel |
9
- 25% |
36
on 2/11/95 |
|
Great
Shearwater |
7
- 19.4% |
2 on 2/28/09 |
|
Sooty
Shearwater |
6
- 16% |
2
on 2/9/97 |
|
Manx
Shearwater |
18
- 50% |
7
on 2/13/99 |
|
Audubon's
Shearwater |
1
- 2.7% |
2
on 2/15/94 |
|
Red
Phalarope |
20
- 55.5% |
1151+
on 2/23/08 |
|
|
21
- 58.3% |
12
on 2/15/94 |
|
Black-legged
Kittiwake |
10
- 27.7% |
22
on 2/15/94 |
|
Great
Skua |
21
- 58.3% |
9+
on 2/9/97 |
|
Parasitic
Jaeger |
5
- 13.8% |
3
on 2/26/ |
|
Dovekie |
22
- 61.1% |
878 on 2/6/ |
|
Common
Murre |
1
- 2.7% |
1
on 2/3/01 |
| Thick-billed Murre | 1 - 2.7% | 1 on 2/13/10 |
|
Razorbill |
32
- 88.8% |
831
on 2/18/01 |
|
Atlantic
Puffin |
9
- 25% |
31
on 2/19/05 |
|
March |
||
|
5 trips total thru 2011 |
||
|
species |
#
of trips seen & % |
high
count |
|
Northern
Fulmar |
3
- 60% |
549
on 3/14/98 |
|
Black-capped
Petrel |
2
- 40% |
8
on 3/18/06 |
|
Sooty
Shearwater |
1
- 20% |
1
on 3/18/06 |
|
Manx
Shearwater |
2
- 40% |
60
to 100 on 3/18/06 |
|
Audubon's
Shearwater |
1
- 20% |
3
on 3/18/06 |
|
Red
Phalarope |
4
- 80% |
670
on 3/18/06 |
|
Great
Skua |
2
- 40% |
3
on 3/3/01 |
|
Razorbill |
2
- 40% |
252
on 3/3/01 |
|
May |
||
|
138
trips total thru 2008 |
||
|
species |
#
of trips seen & % |
high
count |
|
Northern
Fulmar |
5
- 3.6% |
30+
on 5/14/07 |
|
Trindade
Petrel |
51
- 37% |
6
on 5/23/07 |
|
Fea's
Petrel |
45
- 32.6% |
4
to 5 on 5/20/08 |
|
Bemuda
Petrel |
15
- 10.9% |
2
on 5/23/05 & 5/27/02 |
|
Black-capped
Petrel |
138
- 100% |
289
on 5/29/99 |
|
Cory's
Shearwater |
134
- 97.1% |
219
on 5/26/01 |
|
Greater
Shearwater |
67
- 48.6% |
130
to 131 on 5/24/07 |
|
Sooty
Shearwater |
112
- 81.2% |
155
on 5/24/97 |
|
Manx
Shearwater |
43
- 31.2% |
11
to 12 on 5/26/07 |
|
Audubon's
Shearwater |
133
- 96.4% |
370
on 5/29/00 |
|
Wilson's
Storm-Petrel |
138
- 100% |
500
to 600 on 5/30/05 |
|
Leach's
Storm-Petrel |
93
- 67.4% |
136
on 5/30/98 |
|
Band-rumped
Storm-Petrel |
117
- 84.8% |
51
on 5/27/00 |
|
White-tailed
Tropicbird |
8
- 5.8% |
3
on 5/30/06 |
|
Red-billed
Tropicbird |
15
- 10.9% |
2
on 5/27/03 |
|
Red-necked
Phalarope |
46
- 33% |
30
on 5/24/03 |
|
Red
Phalarope |
4
- 2.9% |
23
on 5/14/94 |
|
Sooty
Tern |
13
- 9.4% |
56+
5/24/03 |
|
Bridled
Tern |
62
- 44.9% |
83
on 5/24/03 |
|
South-Polar
Skua |
24
- 17.4% |
2
to 3 on 5/28/07 |
|
Pomarine
Jaeger |
82
- 59.4% |
78
on 5/25/02 |
|
Parasitic
Jaeger |
29
- 21% |
5
on 5/25/07 |
|
Long-tailed
Jaeger |
33
- 23.9% |
7
on 5/29/07 |
|
June |
||
|
51 trips total thru 2008 |
||
|
species |
#
of trips seen & % |
high
count |
|
Trindade
Petrel |
9
- 17.6% |
2
on 6/11/05 |
|
Fea's
Petrel |
8
- 15.7% |
3
on 6/19/05 & 6/4/04 |
|
Bermuda
Petrel |
2
- 3.9% |
1
on 6/2/00 & 6/4/06 |
|
Black-capped
Petrel |
51
- 100% |
234
on 6/3/00 |
|
Cory's
Shearwater |
51
- 100% |
189
on 6/4/00 |
|
Greater
Shearwater |
41
- 80.4% |
217
on 6/9/02 |
|
Sooty
Shearwater |
19
- 37.3% |
7
on 6/9/05 & 6/5/99 |
|
Manx
Shearwater |
20
- 39.2% |
2
on various dates |
|
Audubon's
Shearwater |
51
- 100% |
240
on 6/22/96 |
|
Wilson's
Storm-Petrel |
51
- 100% |
810
on 6/11/05 |
|
Leach's
Storm-Petrel |
35
- 68.6% |
62
on 6/6/99 |
|
Band-rumped
Storm-Petrel |
49
- 96.1% |
58
on 6/3/00 |
|
White-tailed
Tropicbird |
7
- 13.7% |
4
on June 18, 1994 |
|
Red-billed
Tropicbird |
5
- 9.8% |
1
on various dates |
|
Red-necked
Phalarope |
1
- 2% |
1
on 6/2/07 |
|
Sooty
Tern |
8
- 15.7% |
6
on 6/2/01 & 6/04/00 |
|
Bridled
Tern |
22
- 43.1% |
5
on various dates |
|
South-Polar
Skua |
9
- 17.6% |
2
to 3 on 6/6/99 |
|
Pomarine
Jaeger |
22
- 43.1% |
17
on 6/1/01 |
|
Parasitic
Jaeger |
5
- 9.8% |
2
on 6/1/07 |
|
Long-tailed
Jaeger |
8
- 15.7% |
4
on 6/1/07 |
|
July |
||
|
60
trips total thru 2008 |
||
|
species |
#
of trips seen & % |
high
count |
|
Trindade
Petrel |
12
- 20% |
2
on 7/21/97 |
|
Fea's
Petrel |
4
- 6.7% |
1
on various dates |
|
Bermuda
Petrel |
2
- 3.3% |
1
on 7/3/05 & 7/31/93 |
|
Black-capped
Petrel |
60
- 100% |
593
on 7/27/97 |
|
Cory's
Shearwater |
60
- 100% |
1156
on 7/29/00 |
|
Greater
Shearwater |
59
- 98.3% |
310
on 7/17/99 |
|
Sooty
Shearwater |
1
- 1.7% |
1
on 7/24/99 |
|
Manx
Shearwater |
7
- 11.7% |
7
to 8 on 7/8/01 |
|
Audubon's
Shearwater |
59
- 98.3% |
1035
on 7/17/99 |
|
Wilson's
Storm-Petrel |
60
- 100% |
700+
on 7/23/05 |
|
Leach's
Storm-Petrel |
30
- 50% |
15
on 7/17/99 |
|
Band-rumped
Storm-Petrel |
57
- 95% |
102
on 7/27/97 |
|
White-tailed
Tropicbird |
20
- 33.3% |
4
on 7/30/95 |
|
Red-billed
Tropicbird |
4
- 6.7% |
1
on various dates |
|
Red-necked
Phalarope |
16
- 26.7% |
7
on 7/30/00 |
|
Sooty
Tern |
20
- 30% |
86
on 7/29/00 |
|
Bridled
Tern |
40
- 66.7% |
14
on 7/22/95 |
|
South-Polar
Skua |
4
- 6.7% |
4
on 7/30/00 |
|
Pomarine
Jaeger |
20
- 33.3% |
19
on 7/29/00 |
|
Parasitic
Jaeger |
3
- 5% |
1
on various dates |
|
Long-tailed
Jaeger |
5
- 8.3% |
3
on 7/31/94 |
|
August |
||
|
91
trips total thru 2008 |
||
|
species |
#
of trips seen & % |
high
count |
|
Trindade
Petrel |
17
- 18.7% |
4
on 8/26/00 |
|
Fea's
Petrel |
4
- 4.4% |
1
on various dates |
|
Bermuda
Petrel |
3
- 3.3% |
1
on various dates |
|
Black-capped
Petrel |
89
- 97.8% |
538
on 8/24/97 |
|
Cory's
Shearwater |
91
- 100% |
6219
on 8/7/99 |
|
Greater
Shearwater |
71
- 78% |
753
on 8/25/97 |
|
Sooty
Shearwater |
6
- 6.6% |
2
on 8/7/99 |
|
Manx
Shearwater |
11
- 12.1% |
4
on 8/5/01 |
|
Audubon's
Shearwater |
90
- 98.9% |
1173
on 8/5/95 |
|
Wilson's
Storm-Petrel |
91
- 100% |
1208
on 8/31/02 |
|
Leach's
Storm-Petrel |
27
- 29.7% |
14
on 8/9/03 |
|
Band-rumped
Storm-Petrel |
74
- 81.3% |
234
on 8/6/00 |
|
White-tailed
Tropicbird |
18
- 19.8% |
3
on
various dates |
|
Red-billed
Tropicbird |
4
- 4.4% |
1
on various dates |
|
Red-necked
Phalarope |
68
- 74.7% |
69
on 8/30/97 |
|
Sooty
Tern |
69
- 75.8% |
154
on 8/7/99 |
|
Bridled
Tern |
77
- 84.6% |
69
on 8/28/99 |
|
South-Polar
Skua |
18
- 19.8% |
4
on 8/4/01 & 8/21/99 |
|
Pomarine
Jaeger |
45
- 49.5% |
22
on 8/8/92 |
|
Parasitic
Jaeger |
10
- 11% |
4
on 8/8/92 |
|
Long-tailed
Jaeger |
18
- 19.8% |
7
on 8/25/97 |